March 14, 2016

The Paradox of Uncertainty and Security


One of the great unknowns when looking at the Red Sox projected starting outfield in 2016 is the type of offensive production that may be offered by two thirds of this dynamic defensive trio. Jackie Bradley Jr, was offered the keys to center field based on his otherworldly defensive exploits. He could easily be a perennial all-star if he simply hits a little, but his schizophrenic offensive production has not shown signs of leveling off as of yet. Rusney Castillo was "given" left field in lieu of his bloated wallet, but he now hears the footsteps of former 1st round Boston draft pick David Murphy throughout JetBlue Park.

 The one guy that seems to have the whole package so far is the multi dimensional force that is Mookie Betts. His lightning quick hands have already deposited two balls over the fence this spring, and his blazing speed was showcased as he legged out a triple against the Yankees last weekend. Not only can he crush fastballs, he doesn't discriminate when it comes to offspeed stuff either as can been see by the graphic below. Superstar elder statesman David Ortiz christened him as a $250 million dollar talent, and Mookie just seems to get it. He organized a team dinner, impressing many of the old guard around the facility as they gushed about his maturity beyond his birth certificate. Boston seems set at the top of their batting order for many years to come, and it's scary to think that this kid will only get better. His defense is above average as he can chase down balls with ease. The only knock on Mookie could be arm strength as he'll spend half his games in the spacious right field of Fenway Park. 

Getting back to Rusney, it would seem that John Farrell is going to give him every chance to solidify his hold on left field. Castillo and Sandoval were the only lineup regulars to make the a road trip a few days ago to Brandenton to face the Buccos. The last thing we should be hoping for is that David Murphy will supplant Castillo. Putting the hefty investment in Rusney aside, he is far better defensively that Murphy who graded well below average in UZR/150 with the Indians and Angels in 2015. Murphy rated an uncomfortable -8.1 mark last season, but this was an improvement over his horrendous -16.2 with the Indians in 2014. Castillo has played the 37 foot Monster very well in his early days at Fenway, but the legendary legacy of left fielders casts a far bigger shadow. Make no mistake. I'm certainly not expecting the second coming of Jim Rice let alone a Yaz or Williams, but I'd definitely like a step up from Mike Carp. He would be the ninth different left fielder to start on Opening Day in the last nine years (graphic on right from @HighHeatStats).

Rusney already has everyone breathing a sigh of relief now that he'll be patrolling left instead of Hanley. The next step for Castillo is to get some loft on the ball instead of beating it into the ground like he did in 2015. One thing in Castillo's favor is that according to NESN analyst Jerry Remy, he is a very hard worker. As long as he is coachable and asks questions, improvement should be noticeable, especially picking the brains of former Boston greats.


I'm looking for a big year from Jackie Bradley Jr. as I believe he'll put the offensive side of his game together this year. Past Red Sox greats have taken time to grow into their prowess at the plate and no need to look further than the man pictured above. Dwight Evans was always a premium defensive player, but it took a while for him to become a consistent offensive contributor. Dewey never struggled initially as much as Bradley. But even if Jackie produced on a consistent level like Evans did in first four years of his career when Dwight averaged 13 HR / 55 RBI/ .255 BA, the strength of his defense would set him up for a very successful career.  He hit .243 with 10 bombs and 43 ribbies in 74 games last year, so the previous projections are very reasonable with the possibility of a higher ceiling. To give those numbers further perspective, this would nestle him quite comfortably with other elite center fielder defenders such as the Rays' Kevin Kiermaier (credited with saving 42 runs in 2015) and the Blue Jays' Kevin Pillar (credited with 22 runs saved in 2015). I just hope John Farrell doesn't get in Jackie's way with his preset notion that Chris Young will get all the starts against lefties n place of JBJ. Young is a fine insurance plan, and I'll get to him shortly when I discuss the bench strength. However, maybe John didn't get this tidbit of info in his inbox.
Those infamous "getaway game" lineups that we once dreaded are now a thing of the past when we look at the reserves that Boston will feature on the bench. We will probably have Ryan Hanigan, (who I already mentioned when I graded the pitchers, bullpen, and catchers) along side Brock Holt, Chris Young, and Travis Shaw. This could be the best bench the Red Sox ever had, provided of course, that Travis Shaw, for some ungodly reason, can't supplant Pablo Sandoval on Opening Day. Even with the Panda on the bench, it is still a very capable crew, but Sandoval would actually lower the grade in this area if he doesn't crack the lineup on April 4th. 

 Travis Shaw has come out swinging this spring as he made it clear he wasn't just happy to be here, and he is making plenty of noise with his bat. He is hitting an unconscionable .522 so far in Grapefruit League play and has an insane OPS 1.430. The newly minted mayor (see pic) has been seeing time at third base primarily as Hanley learns first and doesn't look out of place. He was a third baseman in college, and he has featured impressive range. Really. it's going to come down to the dollars, and Boston can't have the impression that they've given up on Sandoval. Pablo will no doubt find his name on the lineup card in Cleveland in April, but I do firmly believe that this competition will continue on into the early part of the season with Boston ultimately going with the hot hand. Whoever that turns out to be will be moot as long as the Red Sox are moving in the right direction. Shaw has proven that he can get the job done at the big league level and offers versatility. He may still have to wait to get regular playing time, but I don't think he'll be waiting very long.

 Once Farrell gets acclimatized to the idea that JBJ can actually hit lefties, we may see Chris Young getting more time in left or right than center. This was a nice signing by Dombrowski due to the fact that the offensive production from the outfield was still in question. Young has always been a productive player despite the fact that he hasn't been an everyday player since 2011. A huge part of the reason that he is better served as a platoon player is because he struck out a lot during his regular playing days and never really hit well enough for average. He now beats up on lefties for a living as he only hit .182 against righties in 2015. Young has also had an overall negative value UZR for the past 2 seasons and his rating in CF for the past three years reads: -4.0, -6.5, and -2.8. He is better suited in a corner outfield spot when Jackie does need a breather and Mookie can slide over to center.

Who would have thought that Brock Wyatt Holt would be the gem that Boston mined when they traded Mark Melancon, Stolmy Pimentel,Jerry Sands and Ivan DeJesus to nab smoke throwing closer Joel Handrahan on Boxing Day of 2012? Holt was basically a throw in for minor league depth. It's just that no one told him that. Since he's arrived, Holt has been a fan favorite for his hustle and unyielding ability to do whatever it takes to win. A testament to his versatility was justly rewarded last season when he was named to the all-star team - the only member of the Red Sox to be granted such a prestigious invitation. Just when you think he's done all he can do, he goes just a bit further such as hitting for the cycle last season. He was the first Boston player since John Valentin to complete this feat with Valentin doing the honors in 1996. One thing we do know however  is that Brock tends to run out of gas as the season moves
along. And who could blame him? He's played every position on the diamond except pitcher and catcher quite competently for the past two seasons. Farrell has went on record saying that he'd like to get Holt anywhere between 350 - 400 ABs which is as puzzling as his desire to take lefties away from Bradley. The fact of the matter is if Brock has to take that many turns at the plate, Boston's season probably isn't going to go as they'd hoped. Don't get me wrong. I love watching Holt play the game, but if he has to play that much it means that another piece of the lineup is either not delivering as advertised or on the shelf due to injury.  In the last two losing seasons, Holt has averaged 500 ABs due in large part to prolonged stints on the DL by some regulars. In the second half of the 2014 season, Holt hit a paltry .219 in 2014 and last year he improved in the second half but still dropped from a. 292  to a .265 to close out 2015. The adaptability of Brock is invaluable, but maybe less is more.

 So the final grades for these two areas are as follows:

  • Outfield > B -
  • Bench >   A

If you missed my overview on the infield, check it out here. If the starting pitching steps up and the outfield, outside of Betts, can produce at the plate consistently, a return to October baseball could absolutely be within reach.
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