June 22, 2018

Offense Sleepwalks to Second Place


Road Recap

Record (6-4)       Season (50-26)  GB 2.0     Series Play (16-6-2)
  • The Sawx first stop on this 11-day sojourn was Baltimore, and the Red Sox did what good teams are supposed to do with inferior teams. The Orioles were stuck at 19 wins and the only team in the majors that hadn't hit the 20 win mark at that time. They would wait at least three games longer as Boston swept the O's marking the sixth time the Red Sox have gotten out the brooms in the 2018 campaign. Their record is a dominating 9-1 against the Orioles, and they have outscored them 54-24. The three Red Sox starters in the series: Sale, Rodriguez and Wright combined for a 2-0 record and a punitive 1.47 ERA. The Boston bats never really lit things up as they have in the past at Camden Yards but managed enough offense to back the fantastic pitching. Eduardo Rodriguez turned in his 7th consecutive start of allowing 3 runs or fewer with his 8th win of the year in the second game of the series. His ERA was 2.27 during that stretch, but Alex Cora threw down the gauntlet. He said the start was fine, but he wants Rodriguez to trust his stuff more and challenge hitters in an effort to elongate his outings. This game was a perfect example as he threw 109 pitches in only 5.2 innings and 10 Orioles had reached base. It seems that Steven Wright has all but wrapped up the #5 spot in the rotation as he twirled 6.2 innings of scoreless baseball in the series opener in Baltimore. Boston took the game 2-0 but it took 12 innings to settle things. Below is a comparison after that start by Wright with Drew Pomeranz.
  • Boston split a four-game series with a very good Mariners team that have been challenging the reigning world champs from Houston for the top spot in the west. The Red Sox mustered a little more offense at Safeco with Xander Bogaerts leading the way. Xander had 6 RBI and belted three homers in the Emerald City. Starting pitching was the main story once again. With the exception of Porcello's outing where he surrendered 4 runs in a no-decision in the second game the trio of Price, Rodriguez and Wright allowed only 4 runs in 20 innings (1.80 ERA). Wright was the tough-luck loser in the bunch as he was marvelous in game three. Despite giving up only one run and five hits in  7 innings of work, Seattle's soft-tossing lefty Wade LeBlanc mesmerized Red Sox hitters blanking them for 7.2 innings. Boston never did manage a run and lost the game 1-0. To this point, Boston starters have posted a 4-2 record with a 2.23 ERA in seven games. They have also struck out 47 batters in 44.1 innings. Looking at David Price's last 7 games, he has logged 44.1 innings and struck out 47 batters. He owns a 6-0 record in that span with a 2.64 ERA. In Steven Wright's last three games as a starting pitcher, he is 2-0 with an outlandish 0.44 ERA. Steven has also been a bullpen saver by going 7 innings in 2 of those 3 starts.
  • The final stop on the trip was nothing short of a disappointment. Dropping a series to the Twins knocked Boston out of the catbird seat of the AL East. The Minnesota series also illustrated precisely the issue that has been dogging the club since their last homestand - lack of firepower. In the first two games of the series, Boston had gone 2/22 with RISP. The bats awoke from their slumber late in the finale as Rick Porcello nursed a 2-0 lead until the barrage began in the seventh giving rise to a 9-2 victory. Boston had only scored three times in the first two games of the series. Starting pitching was once again fabulous highlighted by Porcello tossing 7 innings of shutout baseball in the sole win at Target Field. Both Sale and Price offered quality outing in the two previous losses, but run support was in precious short supply on the trip as can be seen below. Boston only had one player bat above .300 in JD Martinez, but oddly enough, he had only 1 RBI. Xander Bogaerts was the big producer on the trip along with Rafael Devers. Raffy smacked three taters and drove in 8.
  • A 6-4 road trip is nothing to sneeze at, but the offense has languished as of late. They went 2-4 in their final 6 games of the trip, after winning each of their first 4. The last homestand was a mediocre 3-3 against Detroit and Chicago with Christian Vazquez leading the team in batting in those six games. Boston has an 11-8 record so
    far in June largely due to the stingy starting rotation (see table).  With Betts trying to find his way after his DL stint, and JD absent in the run production department, others have failed to step up in a significant manner. The glare from the 7-9 spots in the lineup usually inhabited by Nunez, Vazquez/Leon, and Jackie Bradley Jr. is unavoidable looking at the numbers below.  A black hole seems to be developing at second base, but I feel a steady dose of Brock Holt could mitigate this. Nunez does not belong at second, and with the numbers Tzu Wei Lin has been posting in Pawtucket, it seems to only be a matter of when with regards to Boston pulling the plug on Swihart. A groundswell of support for the reinstatement of Rusney Castillo has been building due to Bradley's poor offensive numbers, but this is a foolish proposition when you look at the terrible luck Jackie Bradley Jr. has been having at the plate. Below the road trip numbers, you can see that things should eventually level out for him. It's hard to look at that .114 BA on the road trip and feel good about his place on this team, but his defense certainly is at an elite level. Boston has notched 50 wins carrying the light-hitting Bradley, and I don't see any reason why they can't give Jackie more time to break through. If he ever made a concerted effort to go to the opposite field, I think he could really drive that average up significantly. 
  • Having said all this, the numbers tell me that this malaise is simply a bump in the road. The Red Sox currently lead the majors with 274 XBH and rank 2nd in runs (383), AVG (.261), SLG (.450), and OPS (.778). They also rank 2nd in MLB with 107 HR. The Sawx are the only team besides the Yankees with as many as 6 players with 10 or more homers as well as the only teams with 5 players with 12+ HR: Martinez (22), Betts (19), Benintendi (13), Bogaerts (12), Devers (12), Moreland (10).
Road Trip by the Numbers
NameGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSBA
▼		OBPSLGOPS
J.D. Martinez104536611101181200.306.444.417.861
Xander Bogaerts10464181220394600.293.348.561.909
Andrew Benintendi10433551000257920.286.395.457.852
Brock Holt830253710023501.280.367.320.687
Mookie Betts9433741000225710.270.372.432.805
Mitch Moreland9373258100551100.250.351.281.633
Christian Vazquez621212510010500.238.238.286.524
Rafael Devers104443610203811020.233.250.488.738
Sandy Leon516141300021400.214.313.214.527
Eduardo Nunez730260500013201.192.300.192.492
Jackie Bradley Jr.1040352410144700.114.200.229.429
Blake Swihart4440000000210.000.000.000.000
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/22/2018.

Name G GS
▼		 W L SV IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA GB/FB BAbip SO9
Rick Porcello22113.084421412.7739%.2199.7
David Price221113.0124411022.7732%.2786.9
Eduardo Rodriguez22211.2144431323.0942%.36410.0
Chris Sale22113.053352002.0858%.20813.8
Steven Wright22113.29115900.6658%.2255.9
Matt Barnes3013.02222406.0063%.25012.0
Justin Haley102.02001000.0063%.2500.0
Heath Hembree3013.01111413.0017%.00012.0
Brian Johnson201.21112205.4050%.25010.8
Joe Kelly402.23222206.7540%.3336.8
Craig Kimbrel3023.01225506.0025%.25015.0
Robby Scott1010.102210054.000%.0000.0
Hector Velazquez405.06221203.6053%.3533.6
Brandon Workman404.03113502.2540%.30011.3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/22/2018.




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