April 27, 2014

I ain't missin' you at all?

Nava - "Hey Ben! John just told me about taking over the leadoff spot. I won't let you down. Thanks!"

"Every time I think of you
I always catch my breath
And I'm still standing here
And you're miles away
And I'm wonderin' why you left
And there's a storm that's raging
Through my frozen heart tonight.


I hear your name in certain circles
And it always makes me smile
I spend my time thinkin' about you
And it's almost driving me wild
And there's a heart that's breaking
Down this long distance line tonight.


I ain't missing you at all
Since you've been gone away
I ain't missing you 
No matter what my friends say."


I'm sure Jacoby's recent exploits against his former club has severely compromised Ben's decision to allow him to explore the greener pastures ($153 million greener) of Yankee Stadium. Ellsbury has rattled off 10 hits in 28 ABs  against Boston to date including 4 doubles, and he has also flashed some leather in front of the Fenway Faithful on his return to Boston in the last series. He is a lightning rod at the top of the lineup that has been absent for Cherington and his crew in the early going of this season. In the #1 spot in the batting order, Boston ranks dead last in average in the AL hitting (and I use that term lightly) a paltry .189. The OBP is a desperate .281 exceeding only the Mariners in the leadoff spot.

Was there a plan in place to accommodate Jacoby's departure? The solution devised was twofold, addressing the batting order and defensive aspect in seperate measures.


First of all, the response to the batting order conundrum now lies in Pawtucket filed under the old adage "The best laid plans of mice and men often go astray". Of course, I'm referring to Daniel Nava. Nava had a breakout year last season with his caveat being his ability to reach base. In 134 games in 2013, he was second only to the big thumper, David Ortiz, in OBP with a .385 mark. He also batted .303 which, again, was second only to Big Papi overall. Unfortunately, his knowledge of the strike zone seemed to betray him. He owned a K% of close to 23% and had an OBP of .240 at the time of  his departure. Also his .149 BA wasn't going to get it done so he is now honing in craft in the minors in an effort to create yet another storybook resurgence. I still think he'll have another tale to tell before this season ends.

The defensive side of the equation was left to heir apparent Jackie Bradley  Jr. In this respect, Boston got all they hoped for and more from the youngster. Bradley has been a joy to watch as he effortlessly glides to ball that seemed destined for the gaps. Ellsbury's flat out speed allowed him to make up ground for his poor reads but Bradley instincts are remarkable. A bonus with Bradley patrolling center is he has an absolute cannon for an arm, and he even threw out a greedy Ellsbury trying to take third in the series in New York. For you saber fanatics out their, Jackie's UZR/150 (measuring runs saved per 150 games) registers at 55.9 runs saved leading all Major League center fielders. At this rate it'd be the highest ever recorded. As for his offense, well... that is a work in progress. He has had flashes of competence bordering on the magnificent but these positives at the dish have not been consistent enough yet. One alarming tidbit is his strikeout rate. Going into the Toronto series, he was missing at a rate of 29%. JBJ has swung at 30 pitches below the bottom of the strike zone, whiffing 18 times.and has swung and missed on 7 of 8 pitches down and away. Thus lefties have been giving him fits batting only .185.

Taking things a step further, having Victorino on the shelf has really exposed the Red Sox outfield offensively. At one point during the New York series, the Boston outfield was batting a collective .209 which was good for second last in the AL. With Jackie still figuring things out at the plate, he hasn't had much in the way of corner outfield support. His defense did supplant Sizemore from center and Grady has been pushed to left taking Nava's spot in that platoon involving Jonny Gomes.  Grady had a terrific Spring Training and got out of the gate quickly but has since fallen on hard times. He was tried in the leadoff spot and has flailed at a .103 clip. During the 7 game homestand against New York and Baltimore he was 1-17. Oddly he is hitting lefties at a .278 clip but struggling against righties with a BA of .188. Hopefully "Mr. March" can find his offensive game as he hasn't brought much to the team in the defensive aspect either.



Then we have Jonny Gomes, who plays about a stiff a left field as I've ever seen. He plays the wall in Fenway wonderfully, but I'm more concerned about the balls hit in his vicinity, not over his head. I just cringe when I see him leading off, but Farrell obviously knows something that I don't because he's hit .286 in that spot which is his best average of any place he's batted in the lineup this season. He has a flare for the dramatic and can run into one every now and then despite having the highest K% on the team at a hair under 33%. Gomes needs the backing that Nava provided against righties but until Grady finds himself, that means more will be expected of Gomes which may spell trouble. Jonny's an accessory piece who can get hot, like his run in the World Series,  but he's not to be overused.

Mike Carp has had very little time in the outfield only seeing left field 6 times. He hasn't really been afforded the chance to heat up in his role, so I won't cast and dispersions on his efforts. Actually, I am willing to bet that out of the trio of Carp, Nava, and Sizemore, one of these guys won't last the year in Boston. Maybe Nava gets his game together and pushes Grady out of Boston or becomes a trading chip himself. Teams were asking about Carp throughout Spring Training and if he is allowed to develop some rhythm he could be dealt. With Victorino now back, Jackie providing sparkling defense, and Jonny doing his thing in the clubhouse there isn't room for all of the aforementioned outfielders.

Now does that mean I'm playing "Mr. Hindsight" and admonishing Cherington for not having the sense to ante up to Jacoby? The answer is a resounding no! Look, good for Jacoby for getting paid, but it would have been foolish to pay him for 7 years at 29 years of age. Jacoby relies on speed to be a difference make,r and in that regard, he brings a great deal to the table. But is it worth 21 million per? The 2011 edition of Ellsbury... yes, but this current version? Simply put, this is the classic Yankee solution - to throw money at players in their prime and overextend things to sweeten the pot.  You'd like a player to possess at least four of the five baseball tools to dish out over 20 million a year unless you are an incredible run producer like Miguel Cabrera. Jacoby has three of these tools: speed, fielding, and hitting for average. Is that enough when he's 36 years old? The power component in 2011 was an aberration, and he has a terrible throwing arm. We made that contractual mistake with a guy with the last name of Crawford. Boston was fortunate enough that the Dodger front office personnel were off their meds and pulled the trigger to allow Cherington to unload that God awful contract plus Gonzalez and Beckett. Really, that deal led Boston to their third world title because they were never going to win anything with those three players.

No, I'm simply going to bite my bottom lip when Jacoby runs wild against Boston and focus on the efforts of a 24 year old center fielder as he grows into his game. If, for some reason, Jackie is unable to establish a consistent offensive approach, we still have his defense and the money can be spent more effectively on the missing pieces.

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