February 19, 2016

Hope Springs Eternal


"Pitchers and Catchers Report!"

 Just let those four wonderful words sink in. After the first official day of workouts, my thoughts can now officially return to baseball, freeing me from a maddeningly frustrating Bruin hockey season. There is only one other time of year that trumps spring for sports and that's the fall. During October, the Bruins are starting up, the NFL is in full swing, and if we are really lucky, the Red Sox are participating in playoff baseball. However, since October baseball is never a given prospect, the anticipation that spring training offers is intoxicating both in uncertainty and promise - the yin and yang of a new season, if you will.

 Prognosticators are now abound, and the forecasting begins to whet the appetite. When looking at the Red Sox, you can see below that USA Today and Baseball Prospectus paint a favorable outlook for Boston. For what it's worth, I have the Sawx pulling down anywhere between 85-88 wins.


The irony of USA Today's graphic is the subtitle - "Our semi-scientific stab at the standings come Oct.2." You can crunch all the numbers you like, but the inevitable surprises always shock and delight. ESPN polled 88 of their experts for the 2015 season. Only three of them picked the Royals to win the AL Central, and no one thought they'd win the World Series. Our beloved Red Sox collected the most votes (36) to win the AL East, and we all know how that worked out.

 The media first heralded the arrival of pitchers and catchers in The Sporting News back in 1924. Many thoughts have been shared about why these players are the first ones asked to arrive at spring training. For me, it's quite simple - this symbiotic partnership is the most important determining factor in the foundation to winning ball games. One doesn't function without the other. Pitchers need to get conditioned early on for the wear and tear of a long season as they are employed in an extremely demanding position. Their workload is meted out in small increments at first, and it eventually grows exponentially depending on their role. Catchers need to become familiar with each pitcher's repertoire - how their stuff may have changed and how it plays out. This is especially important in the case of new faces to a club on both sides of the ledger.

I do think Boston took a huge step towards realizing a whiff of the prophesies above in acquiring David Price to anchor the rotation. Price has been simply dominate in the AL East with a record of 49 - 21 and a tidy ERA of 3.17. Having a guy you can pencil in for between 16 -18 wins certainly is comforting, not to mention the tutelage he can provide to young Eduardo Rodriguez. 

 Rodriguez was dazzling by times last year armed with a 95+ heater and a plus changeup. He could earn more punchouts by refining his slider which is just average. It may be foolish to assume Rodriguez could provide the backing Price needs as the #2 guy at this point, but counting on Clay Buchholz to be that guy is a tenuous proposition at best. 

 We all know the talent has always been there but not the durability. Clay's mental makeup has also been the subject of debate, and Boston exposed this last year thinking he could be the stopper in that putrid rotation of 2015. Remember his second start of the season? An epic meltdown in the Bronx on national TV with his deer in the headlights glaze fixed in place as New York battered him for 9 hits and 9 runs in a little over 3 innings. You could literally see his confidence crumble as he also dismissively failed to back up throws while the Yankees circled the bases. Buchholz would later apologize to his teammates for his mental lapses. Throwing his support behind Donald Trump on the political scene as of late will not earn Clay any favors with his detractors in this area either. Clay did put our fears to rest when he announced he was in no rush to discuss a contract extension. Thanks for the heads up, Clay, but I don't think Dombrowski and Hazen were rushing to the table with pen in hand. For Buchholz, it is probably his last chance to demonstrate his worth, and he has already been talking about having "stuff" to prove. Hey, I'm pulling for Clay because...well... I really don't have any choice, and he did end up posting respectable numbers in 2015 with his typical injury abbreviated campaign. 

 Another make or break year is on the horizon for Joe Kelly as a starter. His stuff is electric as he was tied for 5th highest in average velocity in the Majors in 2015. But he had trouble missing bats with regularity. In the area of hard contact, he had the highest percentage on the staff with a mark of 35.6% and a HR/FB% of 12.2. If he flames out as a starter, he could be a valuable bullpen piece.

 We could hope for the cavalry to come in the guise of Rick Porcello, but I think this is short-sighted. He said he is re-dedicating himself to his sinker which should help the horrendous HR/FB% of 14.5 he posted in 2015. In essence, he really looks to be a grossly overpaid #4. Boston has a very narrow margin for error in this area with fall back options such as Henry Owens, Roenis Elias, Brian Johnson, and Steven Wright. If Clay can stay healthy, pull it all together, and Eduardo Rodriguez continues to progress and fulfill expectations, Boston should be fine. Maybe this will be a good omen. 

I was really pleased with a tweet I came across from an interview with Sawx GM Mike Hazen on WEEI.
It's about time teams woke up and realized many games are secured before the closer races in from the bullpen amidst a cacophony of music and semi audible lyrics. The save is such a overrated stat, and Boston is finally getting wise. Now they have the arms to do the honors in critical spots before the ninth inning. In fact, the back end of the bullpens are evolving thanks to teams like the Royals. The importance of having that ninth inning flamethrower to register a virtual certainty could be mothballed in the near future. 

 In a study done by Dave Smith for SABR over a decade ago, it was discovered that a team which held a ninth inning lead won 95% of the time no matter who pitched. Smith used the seasons from 1944 and 2003 and 14 other random seasons to base his research on. In addition, he revealed that percentages remained relatively constant in "save situation" whether the closer was pitching or not. Teams that led by one run going into the ninth won 85% of the time. Leading by two runs saw the percentage climb to 94, and if a three run advantage was held, a victory occurred 96% of the time. 

 A revamped bullpen mindset also fits in with what manager John Farrell spoke to in an article by Jason Mastrodonato. He sees a need for urgency and what better place to practice this than with bullpen management. Carson Smith is a power arm who will be spotted to snuff out possible late inning uprisings. With Koji now set to tie down the eighth with his magical split finger fastball and fireballer Kimbrel getting the big money ninth, Boston can certainly keep pace with some of the higher end bullpens now featured in New York, Baltimore and Kansas City. Junichi Tazawa could also figure into the winning side of things, but he regressed badly last year and looks to be in decline.

 I'm a bit concerned with the lack of a big armed lefty, but Tommy Layne did show that setting down left handed hitters was his bread and butter holding them to a .148 BA. On the other hand, he is a LOOGY if there ever was one and must be used judiciously as can be attested by the .322 BA and .432 OBP posted by righties in 2015. To go one step further, right handers also had a .373 BABIP against Layne, and he had a hard contact percentage against of 32.9%. Robbie Ross Jr., who was the last guy signed avoiding arbitration, still scares the hell out of me, but he logged a very competent .224  BA against lefties and normalized against righties. Other options in the mix are Matt Barnes, Steven Wright, Roenis Elias and Carlos "Wild Thing" Marmol.
What Boston lacks in starting pitching, they certainly make up for with the men who will receive their offerings. Boston has two catchers that could start for any team along with a very capable backup who can shoulder the workload in a pinch. While this is a good problem to have, decisions may come much sooner than later. Christian Vazquez has vowed he'll be ready for Opening Day, and he seems to be moving along ahead of schedule with his recovery. One of my favorite Red Sox writers, Chad Finn, made his preference known as far as who he thinks should start, and whereas I totally get his reasoning, I beg to differ. For me, if Christian Vazquez is healthy, he would be my choice to lead this pitching staff. Swihart has the advantage of a better bat as he demonstrated last year in Vazquez's absence, but I'll take the better defense first as long as Vazquez can hit a little. The pitchers almost become giddy when they express how much they relish throwing to Christian, and the organization loves his leadership qualities. If Vazquez can hit 8 -10 homers and drive in 45-50 runs hitting around .250, I'll take that golden arm over Swihart. I do really like the strides Blake made at the plate though, and it is nice that he was able to get his feet wet last season. In the second half of the season in 2015, Swihart hit .303 in 44 games with an OBP of .353. He is competent defensively and also carries the athleticism to move out from behind the plate to address other needs the club may have (first base in 2017?). There is no doubt he now has the inside track as he has already been named the starter by Farrell. But with Vazquez on the mend and breathing down his neck, the competition can only benefit the team in the long run. Ryan Hanigan is a valuable asset as a backup. He is a solid defender and can go through streaks of being an on base machine.

Going by past performances of the current roster as a predictor of future success, my preliminary grades in these three areas are as follows:

  • Starting pitching >  C+
  • Bullpen > A-
  • Catching >  B
Next up, I'll look at the infield, outfield and bench once training camp moves along and this portion of the roster begins getting into the swing of things.

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