July 17, 2015

Holt Helps Clarify Contender Debate



It's been a little over a month since I have posted an entry, and during this time, much speculation has been offered on the possibilities of the Red Sox actually being a viable contender for a playoff spot. Let's take a peek at some numbers.

 Since my last post on June 10th, Boston has gone 15 -15 which also included their first four game winning streak of the season. The Red Sox were the last team in the Majors to have a winning streak greater than 3 games. Clay Buchholz also re-emerged briefly as the club's ace during this stretch posting a 4-1 record but now is on the shelf indefinitely (as he's been in the past 6 seasons) with a wonky right elbow. The bullpen is 11th best in the past 30 days tied for tops in home runs allowed with 15 and overall the Sawx are 17 - 27 against AL East teams. 

 To further explore the Red Sox current situation, at 42-47 they are currently 6.5 games back and Alex Speier noted that it has been over 25 years since a team made the playoffs from such a deficient. "Mr. Sunshine", Dan Shaughnessy, also adds that among 380 playoff teams in the past 100 years. only 6 had first half winning percentages lower than the Sawx and only 7 teams that played sub .500 baseball have ever made the post season.

If you had any doubts before, the answer on October baseball is a resounding "NO!" If you still are one of those hopelessly brainwashed by the corporate hogwash from Lucchino and company, please read on so I may release you from their mind controlling mantra.

 In fact, the selection of Brock Holt to the all star game speaks volumes on the shortcomings of this 2015 edition of the Olde Towne Team. No disrespect intended towards Holt as I don't know where we'd be without his versatility and consistency, but a lot of big money was thrown around and the rich folks will be sitting on their wallets watching Holt play on Tuesday night in Cincinnati. For the first time since 2001, the mid summer classic was played with only one Red Sox on the AL roster

 Boston invested in offense in a big way in the off season signing Sandoval and Ramirez to go along with run producing stalwarts Ortiz, Pedroia and Napoli. Ramirez has answered the call offensively along with Sandoval to a lesser extent, but neither really made a dent in the all star equation. Fangraphs reveals that the defense from this duo has been abominable as Hanley has been a league worst in left, costing Boston 17.9 runs relative to average. Surprisingly, Sandoval has been rated the third worst with a mark of 11.9 runs. The Red Sox also though they were getting an effective switch hitter in Sandoval, but after going just 2-41 with one walk from the right side, he has abandoned that side of the plate. Lack of consistency from Ortiz coupled with a nosedive from Napoli has led to a disappointing first half, and I will examine these two further a bit later.

Getting back to our all star, Brock leads the team in OBP with a .379 mark and is second only to Mookie Betts in WAR with a 3.1. Through it all, Holt has played every position except catcher and pitcher and had logged most of his time in the outfield until Dustin Pedroia hit the DL.

Holt has been hitting a blistering .452 in the leadoff spot over 7 games which would allow Dustin to slip back to his familiar number 2 position. Both men have bolstered this batting order position as Pedroia was hitting .350 here before his injury and the Red Sox are third overall with a .299 BA from the leadoff spot. With Pedey on his way back, Holt needs to continue playing as can be seen below and first base seems the logical landing spot. 

 Cue the miserable meanderings of Mike Napoli. Mike is 4-40 since June 27th and his defensive play has noticeably declined. He has suffered through a couple of benchings and was even passed over by rookie Travis Shaw, who promptly provided sustenance going 3-4 in a game against Miami. Among qualifying hitters in the MLB, only he and Stephen Drew have sub .200 BA and a sub .300 OBP

 Although there has still been production from David Ortiz at the DH spot, it has become obvious and reaffirmed by his peers that he is not the same hitter. Astros' reliever Tony Sipp and past nemesis David Price both offered their assessment of David and chimed in on the subject. Sipp expressed derision that he didn't come after Ortiz in their visit to Fenway and there is certainly fodder for this from port side pitchers. Amazingly, Ortiz is only batting .147 with runners in scoring position and is hitting a mere .128 against lefties which is dead last with players of over 50 AB. Big Papi is fourth on the team in runs produced and is second only to Hanley Ramirez in both homers and RBI, but along with his inept numbers against southpaws and absence of clutch hits, other negatives have been surfacing in the media. 

 Casting aspersions on a Red Sox icon hasn't helped Ortiz as he now seems to doubt the authenticity of Ted Williams mammoth homer at Fenway. He also balked at logging more time at first base feeling this could lead to injury as he said "I'm too old". This is something the Boston brass should pounce on moving forward into 2016. I agree that Ortiz cannot be expected to play considerably more at first at this point of his career, but this one dimensional aspect of David's game coupled with the fact that we have another of his ilk shuffling around in left field tells us that the end may be near for Big Papi. Hanley Ramirez has played in 9 games as a DH and is 11-33 with 11 RBI and redundancy at this position costs the team on defense as mentioned above. If Ortiz fulfills this projection below, it'd be hard to say goodbye but Boston may be better off picking up a slick fielding corner outfielder with some pop. Hey, he's helped lead the team to three titles, and he is a Boston Franchise Four recipient. The respect that David craves, and sometimes feels is lacking, has been given. So, the end of this season might be as good a time as any to close the book on a Hall of Fame career.


 Oh, and let's not forget the black hole that is right field. In 2015, Boston has posted a .223 BA from that position, good for second worst in the AL. With only 7 homers they rank second worst again and are scraping the bottom in doubles with only 10. Dating back to the 2014 season, the cavalcade of Rusney Castillo, Daniel Nava, Jackie Bradley, Alex Hassan, Corey Brown, Shane Victorino has not exactly inspired confidence.  Alejandro De Aza has been doing his best to restore my faith in Red Sox right fielders logging a .323 BA in 31 games. He's hit 5 triples and has been making things happen on the bases along with covering plenty of ground in the outfield. Hopefully, De Aza can continue his effective play as he was on a roll going into the break.



One thing I'm truly happy about is that we got the inevitable Clay Buchholz DL visit out of the way sooner rather than later. Clay had been in the zone in the past 30 days assuming the role of staff ace going 4-1 while posting a stingy 1.79 ERA. He's struck out 33 batters in 40 IP allowing only 3 free passes. His BB/9 of 0.67 ranks second best in the AL tying him with Jose Quintana of the White Sox. You see how unfair it would be for Buchholz to tease us any longer. This season was the first time he made it through June without visiting the DL since 2009. Brian Johnson has been called up to take his spot and another glimmer into the future will be on display. Hopefully, Johnson can offer solace with a competent effort as having two talented lefties in the rotation bodes well moving ahead. Twenty two year old Eduardo Rodriguez has become a leader on staff after only 9 starts and an impressive 5-2 record. However, having these two rookies in the rotation at this point isn't really how Cherington drew it up. If Boston demonstrated more consistent promise, I'd be expecting Ben to deal for a pitcher by the trade deadline, but now, I wouldn't hold my breath for this type of daliance. Rick Porcello may be able to turn things around in the second half, but it's probably too little, too late. The return of Ryan Hanigan points to improved results and may allow Cherington some peace of mind and a more promising return on the extension that was offered to the former Tiger at the beginning of the season. Sitting at a third worst ERA of 5.90, any semblance of the guy who coaxed continual groundball outs for the Tigers would be refreshing while also re-educating himself on the permise of the shutdown inning. Oh and guess who is right behind Rick in the bloated earned run race? Yep, Joe "Cy Young" Kelly with a repulsive 5.67. Miley has also proven to be a solid back end piece, but don't expect him to spearhead a run at the division title. Wade registered a 3-2 mark in the past 30 days with a 4.29 ERA. Since June 11th, he has gone 6+ innings 4 times and he has logged quality starts in each outing.

With the starting pitching inexperienced and in need of help, this spells disaster with the current bullpen situation. 

Tommy Layne had been very effective against lefties but righties are clubbing him to death as can be attested by his 6.17 ERA in 2015 and they are slugging .521 off his offerings. A cast off from the starting rotation has now join the relief corps in the person of Justin Masterson. Masterson flashed a teaser during the Yankee series pitching a complete inning but lefties typically pound him so this experiment is very much in its trial phase. Seeing that his last start only last 3.2 innings and 5 runs worth of frustration against the Astros, this might be a role he can exploit. Alexi Ogando is doing his best John Wasdin impersonation giving up 8 homers in only 40.1 IP and robbing Farrell's confidence in what was thought to be a promising reclamation project. Ogando sits tied for second in the AL most dingers  by a reliever. Oh and Alexi also leads the Sawx bullpen in walks with 14 tying him with Tommy Layne. Craig Breslow has been relegated to the mop and bucket brigade, and Matt Barnes was banished after these numbers below. YIKES! All this above has fostered new faith in Robbie Ross  Jr. and that in itself is a troubling statement. Tazawa and Uehara can still deliver, but unfortunately they won't get enough opportunities.

Still, all is not lost as two young rising stars are finding their way through the mire that is the 2015 season. Xander Bogaerts' steady improvement in the field coupled with a patented inside out swing reminiscent of his boyhood idol, Derek Jeter, has him on the cusp of stardom. Xander will begin his post all-star break play with a 10 game hitting streak, batting .400 with 3 doubles and 10 RBI. What's more astounding is his plate performance in the clutch. Bogie is second only to Prince Fielder when batting with ducks in the pond, rapping a blazing .392. Also up the middle, we have Mookie Betts who makes plays like the one below against the Yankees seem routine.

After scuffling at the plate earlier on in the season, Mookie is hitting stride as well. Since June 11th, Betts is second in all of baseball batting .374 and owns an OPS of 1.100. With Bogaerts and Betts blossoming, a healthy Pedroia and Vazquez behind the dish would make Boston a force up the middle. Thinking past Pedroia, you also have 19 year old Yoan Moncada who is starting to figure things out as of late and can flat out fly as can be seen by his inside the park homer.


For me, Holt's all-star contribution probably best sums up the Sawx in the second half. Just like Brock entering the game as a pinch runner, Boston will go about their business in relative obscurity. Then, they will go through periods of providing the improbable temptation of believing in playoff pursuits similar to Holt's run creating stolen base. However, just as in the Yankee series before the break, when the opportunity presents itself for true validation, Boston will be overwhelmed sharing Brock's fate against Aroldis Chapman.
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