In the midst of this messy romance ripe with two years of miscommunication and distrust, in walks Dave Dombrowski, the man with the plan. Dombrowski has a proven track record as his pedigree includes presiding over 6 playoff appearances. Four of those playoff seasons came consecutively between 2011-2014 with the Detroit Tigers. He also has three pennants, and one World Series title with the Florida Marlins back in 1997. He arrived to a jilted Boston fanbase that wanted answers, and to Dombrowski's credit, he didn't waste any time trying to woo us back. Two of his off-season splashes - the inking of David Price and the trade for Craig Kimbrel has us all believing once again. Dombrowski is on record as saying that he now likes the team the way it is, and he doesn't foresee any further moves. However, I feel there are still may be a piece or two needed before I'm convinced that we will once again be destined for October baseball. Naturally, Dave won't rush things. He has two campaigns of monumental disappointment in his hip pocket and will take his time gaining our complete admiration.With regards to his early tweaking of the team, it wasn't really rocket science on his part. Boston was reeling from two successive years of being bottom feeders and there was need of validation. And there is a cost that comes with this type of longing. Look no further than the contract of Price - a whopping $217 million for 7 years of service. This was a massive deal to be sure, but the price tag that has been paid over the past two campaigns was also steep - both monetarily and emotionally. Before I provide my slant on the 2016 edition that is being assembled, let's take a look on how we arrived at this vulnerable condition.
It was believed that Ben Cherington was "Boy Wonder- Part Two" after stepping in for the banished Theo Epstein, and I don't think anyone was sensing that we'd be totally broadsided by the past two seasons of Red Sox baseball.Coming off an unexpected world title in 2013 that marked the return of John Farrell, it looked as though the Red Sox were set for plenty of future success. Cherington had served in the Red Sox organization since 1999, and although his tenure began a bit wonky serving basically as Larry Lucchino's marionette in the "Bobby Valentine Experience", he found his stride and began to thrive. After Larry's guy fell flat on face, the shackles were shed and Ben went to work. He rid the Sawx of the gluttonous contracts of Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett, shipping both players along with Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto to the Dodgers to clear a little less than 260 million dollars in salary. He then inked 7 free agents that didn't cost draft pick compensation to give Farrell the ammunition that helped guide the franchise to its 8th championship - a mere three seasons ago. No longer the suffers of unrequinted affection, the team that broke our hearts time and time again was finally loving us back lavishing us with 3 titles in 10 years. With the promise of more on the horizon, all was forgotten. Hey, we had given Ben a mulligan for 2012 as he wasn't fully culpable for the Valentine fiasco. Onward and upward.. or so we thought.
In 2014, Cherington was now playing with house money by, ironically, not spending any of it. And who could blame him? The team was fresh off a world title, and many pieces remained in place. Armed with the confidence of John Henry and Co., Ben decided to think outside the box as he passed on free agents Jacoby Ellsbury and Jarod Saltalamacchia, and instead, opted for the ever popular "low risk high reward" signings of Grady Sizemore and AJ Pierzynski. He and the braintrust were counting on the likes of Napoli, Victorino and Lackey to spearhead another playoff run. They also were relying on the emergence of Jackie Bradley Jr.and Will Middlebrooks - two homegrown studs that seem poised to come into their own.
Initially, I thought this was pretty lucid thinking on Ben's part, and while I didn't share over the moon enthusiasm, I still picked them to battle for a wild card spot that year. Then it happened...
His choices for replacements for Ellsbury and Salty - Grady Sizemore and AJ Pierzynski became simply sand in the vaseline. Sizemore looked great in the mirror but brutal on the field, and AJ pissed everyone off with his idiotic behaviour and indifference. Victorino and Middlebrooks were as sturdy as china dolls playing in only 30 and 63 games respectively. To compound matters, Victorino's absence aided in exposing that Boston outfield as one of the worst offensive units in the past 65 years. Despite being a perennial highlight reel outfielder, Jackie Bradley Jr. had a horrendous year offensively Unlike Middlebrooks, Bradley's story is yet to be completely written with the Red Sox, but since 1947, Bradley has the worst overall batting average of any Red Sox player in their first three seasons with the team with a minimum of 700 ABs. As you look at the list I provided from Baseball Reference below, check out the fourth worst player. Of course, you also have a Red Sox Hall of Famer on the list in Rico Petrocelli so clearly Bradley certainly isn't doomed to complete failure by his slow offensive start. We had a glimmer of consistency from Jackie at the dish last year, and I'm pulling for him to be a fixture in right for many years to come as he's one of the best defensive outfielders I've ever seen.
Now let's get back to the 2014 Boston outfield. Since 1950, that contingent comes in third in poorest batting average, first in strikeouts and second worst in homers (see list below) They were bested in homers only by the 1994 strike shortened edition led by Butch Hobson. Unbelievably, that team played 47 less games and featured the power starved trio of Billy Hatcher, Lee Tinsley and Otis Nixon with a little Mike Greenwell, and Tom Brunansky sprinkled in. Putting things in perspective for 2014, the .249 average was good for 13th place in the AL ahead of Houston and Seattle, and they were dead last in homer runs with 26.
| Rk | Year | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2010 | 162 | .245 | 1974 | 1761 | 233 | 431 | 101 | 11 | 57 | 223 | 445 | .245 | .317 | .412 | .729 |
| 2 | 1992 | 162 | .246 | 2075 | 1864 | 222 | 458 | 92 | 10 | 31 | 195 | 349 | .246 | .310 | .356 | .666 |
| 3 | 2014 | 162 | .249 | 2018 | 1820 | 209 | 453 | 91 | 13 | 26 | 178 | 447 | .249 | .313 | .356 | .669 |
| 4 | 1972 | 155 | .252 | 2029 | 1771 | 249 | 447 | 85 | 12 | 50 | 209 | 300 | .252 | .336 | .399 | .735 |
| 5 | 1994 | 115 | .254 | 1501 | 1316 | 187 | 334 | 69 | 6 | 24 | 145 | 216 | .254 | .331 | .370 | .701 |
| 6 | 1961 | 163 | .256 | 2165 | 1898 | 266 | 486 | 94 | 16 | 45 | 241 | 321 | .256 | .338 | .394 | .732 |
| 7 | 1983 | 162 | .260 | 2141 | 1924 | 278 | 501 | 93 | 10 | 92 | 282 | 347 | .260 | .327 | .463 | .789 |
| 8 | 1971 | 162 | .260 | 2062 | 1798 | 245 | 467 | 96 | 8 | 70 | 237 | 263 | .260 | .347 | .439 | .786 |
| 9 | 1991 | 162 | .261 | 2048 | 1846 | 234 | 482 | 103 | 12 | 56 | 268 | 262 | .261 | .322 | .421 | .743 |
| 10 | 1953 | 153 | .262 | 1983 | 1781 | 216 | 467 | 74 | 18 | 31 | 190 | 201 | .262 | .326 | .376 | .702 |
Ben was also relying on a strong starting pitching staff that led the team to the promised land the previous season. This was scuttled in large part to the combined efforts of Clay Buchholz, Jake Peavy and Brandon Workman as they went a combined 10-30 with and ERA a hair over 5. Inevitably the yard sale sign was put out on Yawkey Way. This led to the departure of two of the pitching anchors from the 2013 championship team. Homegrown product Jon Lester was shipped off to Oakland for the seemingly uncoachable Yoenis Cespedes, and Jon Lackey was sent to the Cardinals for Joe Kelly and Allan Craig. Consequently, the team was beyond redemption and sunk to the cellar for the second time in three years.
However, the 2013 title still had legs with the Faithful as it was a lingering goodwill reminder of happier days with Ben. But he was now sensing urgency to pull us back into his grasp. What followed in 2015 can be neatly summed up by this quote from the 1983 Tom Cruise movie, Risky Business :
Sometimes you just have to say, "What the fuck, make your move."
"Oh, no problem'" says Ben. "We'll just stick him in left field."
Left field? Really? He never spent any significant time in the outfield in his entire career.But who really cared at that point? I was on back on board big time and thought this team could take the division. I figured Hanley would crush it at Fenway because he had new muscles, and everyone else gushed about the size of his pipes. Dustin Pedroia was quoted as saying "Now he looks as though he could play middle linebacker on weekends and then play left field for us." Only problem with this was Hanley played left field just like a middle linebacker. Manager John Farrell also chimed in with this, "Then you see him day in and day out, and he's a physical presence." Farrell's tidbit in fact became a hideous form of foreshadowing after witnessing the gruesome display below.
tbh, i think hanley ramirez got robbed in those gold glove nominations pic.twitter.com/nPXsAtkUSh
— Joon Lee (@iamjoonlee) October 29, 2015
The most astonishing revelation for me last year was the treacherous defensive play, and it began and ended with Hanley Ramirez. Having moved Mookie Betts to center, and later, sliding Jackie Bradley Jr. to right, the disparity in the outfield between Hanley and the Betts/Bradley duo could only be described by the timeless quote from the Charles Dickens' classic The Tale of Two Cities.:"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us..."
So, as you can see, I'm a little gun-shy with all this "return to the playoffs" talk as some of the early returns have Boston winning the division. I think Dombrowski has addressed some major areas of concern by bolstering the pen with Carson Smith and Craig Kimbrel, adding Price as the stopper, and slapping on an accessory piece to compliment Jackie Bradley Jr. against lefties in Chris Young. I do think that a second top end starter was a necessity. When we look back at the glory days we had some dynamic duos at the top of past rotations with such pairings as Martinez and Schilling, Lester and Beckett, Lester and Lackey. With Price as the definitive number one, who is number two? AHH... AHH... I HEARD THAT! DON'T SAY IT! PLEASE DON'T SAY, CLAY BUCHHOLZ! How many times are we going to put lipstick on that pig (see pic)? That talk has been rolling around for quite some time. You know... he's the guy that David Ross said had the best stuff on the staff - the "touch and feel" master. He had one such #2ish season back in 2010. Even his 12-1 season in 2013 couldn't back his play as a top end guy. He hit the DL, as he so often does, and wasn't really a factor in the playoff run. He has only pitched better than 170 innings three times in nine professional seasons. I was actually hoping Boston would part ways with him and go after someone like Johnny Cueto to accompany Price at the top of the rotation. Every time we want to embrace Clay as an upper echelon pitcher and give ourselves over to him emotionally, the following seems to occur.
Finally, I was really encouraged by Dombrowski's vision for the bullpen. Last year, Boston had the third worst bullpen in the American League with respect to ERA coming in at 4.24. They did finish first in home runs allowed though. Boston allowed 76 taters admirably backed by the efforts of Alexi Ogando and Craig Breslow who tied for most cookie shots with 12 apiece. Both men tied for second worst in home runs allowed by a reliever since 2001 when Rod Beck served up 15.
The anatomy of a successful bullpen is changing. Look no further than the reigning World Series champion Royals. The teams that have playoff aspirations are building three headed monsters at the back end of the bullpen.In the Royals' case, they had Holland, Herrera, Davis in 2014 losing to the Giants by the narrowest of margins. Then, when Holland needed Tommy John last year, they added Madsen as part of the trio and won it all. Toronto has added Drew Storen to go along with young fireballers in Sanchez and Osuna. Them "Damn Yankees" now arguably have the best pen in baseball with Betances, Miller and newly acquired Aroldis Chapman.
This fits somewhat into my longstanding philosophy of the need to have a better than average arm entering the game in clutch situations. Now with the focus on starters going 6 innings for that glorious quality start, you better have another pitcher with a similar skill set as your closer to get you to the actual save opportunity. I've always maintained that the save is a backwards stat, and the closer has become more of a theatrical aspect of the game rather than a purposeful one. Between players’ agents and baseball analysts, they have backed owners and general managers into a corner on the “value” of the save, and this statistic has simply created a very well-paid position.
Dombrowski may think he has the makings of a shutdown triumvirate, but I'm not convinced that Boston has an elite back end yet. Smith had a breakout year in 2015, and we know Kimbrel is a proven commodity as outlined here by Bill Chuck. However, I'm not sure what Koji has left in the tank, and I was actually surprised he wasn't jettisoned in the 2014 fire sale. Junichi Tazawa has been a workhorse but has been overused at times. His strikeout totals have declined since 2013, and I've noticed decreased velocity on the fastball along with an inability to tempt hitters with the splitter. He was also hit hard at times and his ERA was a chubby 4.14. I think moving Joe Kelly to the pen is the right move eventually as his has the giddy up that can overpower hitters. Missing location is what gets Kelly into trouble, but he could thrive on shorter exposure.
Ya know, I really want to believe this team is a contender, and I'm content with saying they will finish no worse than third place as advertised right now. Could they duel for a wild card spot? That is my hope. One thing all good teams have is strength up the middle, and Boston certainly has a very capable crew with Swihart, Vazquez, Pedroia, Betts and burgeoning superstar Xander Bogaerts in the thick of the defense. My skepticism lies with the corners of the diamond with regards to offensive contributions of Castillo and Bradley throughout the course of a full season. I also agree with Red Sox sage Alex Speier that it is doubtful we can expect bounce back seasons from by both Ramirez and Sandoval, and I have noted my reservations concerning the depth of the starting pitching core. In any event, Dombrowski has officially renewed the courtship, so now we wait to see if the sincerity of his assembled suitors is indeed genuine.
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